It is true that trans visibility and self-identification have increased dramatically in recent years. But the prevailing theory is that this is because of increased societal acceptance allowing those with pre-existing gender incongruence to access care with less stigma. Have you ever seen that graph of left-handedness over time? The principle is similar. As acceptance increases, more people will feel comfortable coming out as trans — but only up to a certain, naturally-occurring frequency. For transness, that frequency is likely still a very small minority. One recent study (Kolk et al. 2023)²² showed that diagnosis of gender incongruence actually fell off sharply in Sweden between 2018 and 2020, returning to 2015 levels. Going forward, more studies may find this type of result.
